Wednesday, July 19, 2017

USD/JPY: technical analysis


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 111.60
Take Profit 110.50, 109.70
Stop Loss 112.20
Key Levels 109.70, 110.50, 111.60, 112.85, 113.60, 114.35
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 112.85
Take Profit 113.60, 114.35
Stop Loss 112.25
Key Levels 109.70, 110.50, 111.60, 112.85, 113.60, 114.35

USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is testing its strong support.

USD/JPY, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the SMA200, but below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that turned down. The RSI keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price just on the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is diverging with the price as well.

Key levels
Support levels: 111.60 (February lows), 110.50 (local lows), 109.70 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 112.85 (local highs), 113.60 (local highs), 114.35 (May highs).
Trading tips
The price is testing its strong support level near 111.60. Its breakdown would lead to a fall continuation, but there is also a chance of an upward rebound.
Short positions can be opened form the level of 111.60 with targets at 110.50, 109.70 and stop-loss at 112.20. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 112.85 with targets at 113.60, 114.35 and stop-loss at 112.25. Validity – 3-5 days.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

AUD/USD: growth continues | FX Signals

AUD/USD: growth continues | FX Signals

AUD/USD: growth continues25 January 2017, 15:36


Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY
Entry Point0.7548, 0.7505, 0.7400
Take Profit0.7780, 0.7835
Stop Loss0.7330
Key Levels0.7160, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7480, 0.7505, 0.7610, 0.7700, 0.7735, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7835
Current trend
Within less than a month, the pair gained almost 500 points and reached its key resistance level at 0.7610.
The pair was significantly supported by weakening in the US Dollar, which remains pressured by uncertainty about the plans of the new president administration regarding taxation stimulus and other important economic decisions. At the same time, the Australian currency is supported by commentaries from the RBA that notes that the pace of inflation is approaching its target levels. In the medium-term, this could mean that the regulator is not planning to apply additional stimulus measures.
This week attention needs to be paid to data on the Producer Price Index from Australia and to statistics on the labour market, GDP and Durable Goods Orders in the US.
Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in a long-term sideways channel, heading to its upper border at the levels of 0.7735, 0.7780, 0.7835.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. The price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, growing to the upper line near that stands near the level of 0.7780. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are rapidly increasing.
Support levels: 0.7505, 0.7480, 0.7430, 0.7400, 0.7300, 0.7235, 0.7160.
Resistance levels: 0.7610, 0.7700, 0.7735, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7835.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the levels of 0.7505, 0.7400 with targets at 0.7780, 0.7835 and stop-loss at 0.7330.

CAC: Fibonacci analysis | FX Signals

CAC: Fibonacci analysis | FX Signals

CAC: Fibonacci analysis25 January 2017, 15:21


Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point4886.0
Take Profit4910.0, 4955.0
Stop Loss4870.0
Key Levels4768.0. 4816.0, 4844.0, 4867.0, 4918.0, 4919.0, 4955.0
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point4867.0
Take Profit4844.00, 4816.0
Stop Loss4880.0
Key Levels4768.0. 4816.0, 4844.0, 4867.0, 4918.0, 4919.0, 4955.0
The growth of the price is possible.
On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of 4816.0 (correction 23.6%) and is pointed to the beginning of the year’s maxima at the level of 4919.0. Still there couldn’t be enough growth potential, as the Stochastic has entered the overbought area and broke the upper border of the Bollinger Bands, so after the reversal the correction can develop to the level of 4844.0 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and 4816.0.
On the daily chart the price has reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the level of 4867.0. The price can consolidate above it, as the Stochastic is pointed upwards, and the price can move to the levels of 4918.0 and 4955.0 (correction 76.4% for the long term trend). Otherwise the price can return to the lower border of the Bollinger Bands (4810.0) and 4768.0 (correction 61.8% for the long term trend).
Trading scenario
The long positions are preferable, but open ones only after the price is set above the level of 4885.0 with the target at 4910.0, 4955.0. Stop loss is at 4870.0.
Alternative scenario
Sell the stock below the level of 4868.0 with the target at 4844.00, 4816.0 and stop loss at 4880.0.

CAC: Fibonacci analysis | FX Signals

CAC: Fibonacci analysis | FX Signals

CAC: Fibonacci analysis25 January 2017, 15:21


Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point4886.0
Take Profit4910.0, 4955.0
Stop Loss4870.0
Key Levels4768.0. 4816.0, 4844.0, 4867.0, 4918.0, 4919.0, 4955.0
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point4867.0
Take Profit4844.00, 4816.0
Stop Loss4880.0
Key Levels4768.0. 4816.0, 4844.0, 4867.0, 4918.0, 4919.0, 4955.0
The growth of the price is possible.
On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of 4816.0 (correction 23.6%) and is pointed to the beginning of the year’s maxima at the level of 4919.0. Still there couldn’t be enough growth potential, as the Stochastic has entered the overbought area and broke the upper border of the Bollinger Bands, so after the reversal the correction can develop to the level of 4844.0 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and 4816.0.
On the daily chart the price has reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the level of 4867.0. The price can consolidate above it, as the Stochastic is pointed upwards, and the price can move to the levels of 4918.0 and 4955.0 (correction 76.4% for the long term trend). Otherwise the price can return to the lower border of the Bollinger Bands (4810.0) and 4768.0 (correction 61.8% for the long term trend).
Trading scenario
The long positions are preferable, but open ones only after the price is set above the level of 4885.0 with the target at 4910.0, 4955.0. Stop loss is at 4870.0.
Alternative scenario
Sell the stock below the level of 4868.0 with the target at 4844.00, 4816.0 and stop loss at 4880.0.

Altria Group, Inc.: analytical review | FX Signals

Altria Group, Inc.: analytical review | FX Signals

Altria Group, Inc.: analytical review25 January 2017, 14:01


Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point70.85
Take Profit71.30, 71.75, 72.25
Stop Loss70.30
Key Levels68.75, 70.00, 70.80
Fundamental analysis

In the 3rd quarter of 2016 Altria Group reported in terms of earnings per share ($0.82) and profitability ($5.2 billion), which were higher than market expectations. In December 2016 Altria Group, together with Philip Morris International, have applied to use IQOS technology. If the application is confirmed by the FDA, the company Altria Group will have exclusive rights to sell products in the US. All these factors have allowed shares of Altria Group to grow by more than 7.3% since the release of quarterly report.
In the 4th quarter of 2016 analysts expect revenue growth of 1.6% YoY to 4.8 billion. The growth is possible due to the increase in sales of Malboro Slate Black & Mild, and also thanks to the rise in prices for cigarettes by 0.7 % last year.
Over the last week the stocks of Altria Group showed growth by 3.33% against the growth of the index S&P500 by 0.66%.
Key levels
By the last two weeks company's shares were rising and gained more than 4% in cost. On Monday, January 23, the instrument overcame and consolidated above the key resistance level of 70.00, which now serves as a support. Local resistance is at 70.80. Indicators reflect the to force of buyers.
Support levels: 70.00, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 70.80.
Trading tips
If the price consolidates above 70.80, then #MO quotations growth may continue. Stop-loss is should be set at the level of 70.30. Potential profit levels are 71.30, 71.75 and 72.25.

NZD/USD: the pair is waiting for the inflation data to continue to grow | FX Signals

NZD/USD: the pair is waiting for the inflation data to continue to grow | FX Signals

NZD/USD: the pair is waiting for the inflation data to continue to grow25 January 2017, 13:19



Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point0.7270
Take Profit0.7340, 0.7400
Stop Loss0.7210
Key Levels0.7010, 0.7100, 0.7175, 0.7245, 0.7340, 0.7400
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point0.7170
Take Profit0.7100, 0.7010
Stop Loss0.7220
Key Levels0.7010, 0.7100, 0.7175, 0.7245, 0.7340, 0.7400
Current trend

During this week the NZD is growing against the USD. The market is reaction to the USA Secretary of the Treasure Steven Mnuchin’s commentary about how the strong USD can negatively affect the US economy in the short term. Besides, the USA leaving the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and the plan to review the NAFTA results in the nervous mood of the market and makes the trader to find an alternative to the USD.

Support and resistance

Now the price is testing the level of 0.7245 (the cluster of Fibonacci correction 38.2% in the long term and 61.8% in the middle term), the breakout here can lead to the further growth to the level of 0.7340 (Fibonacci correction 76.4%) and 0.7400. The New Zealand 4 quarter 2016 Consumer Price index publication Index can support the NZD. The index is expected to grow by 0.3% MoM and by 1.2% YoY. On the other hand, the Stochastic is reaching the overbought zone, which can reflect the possibility of the correction to the level of 0.7175 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%), but the upward scenario is more favorable.

Support levels: 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7010.

Resistance levels: 0.7245, 0.7340, 0.7400.

Trading scenario

Open long positions is the price is set above the level of 0.7245 with the target at 0.7340, 0.7400 and stop loss at 0.7210. Open short positions below the level of 0.7175 with the target at 0.7100, 0.7010 and stop loss at 0.7220.

XAU/USD: general review | FX Signals

XAU/USD: general review | FX Signals

XAU/USD: general review25 January 2017, 13:05


Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point1195.76
Take Profit1187.76
Stop Loss1198.00
Key Levels1176.06, 1187.66, 1195.76, 1210.18, 1220.01, 1233.12
Alternative scenario
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point1210.20
Take Profit1220.01
Stop Loss1207.20
Key Levels1176.06, 1187.66, 1195.76, 1210.18, 1220.01, 1233.12
Current trend
During yesterday's trading session, gold price fell markedly due to the rising US dollar, which draws back investors’ interest. The dollar is also supported by the growth of the American stock market, as well as yesterday's statistics on PMI Markit in the US manufacturing sector, which increased to 55.1 points in January from 54.3 points a month earlier. After the publication, the XAU/USD pair fell in the area of 1202.00. Perhaps, the current downward trend will be continued today, as the macroeconomic calendar contains no important releases. It is worth noting that in the near future the dollar will be strongly affected by the political factor. Investors pay particular attention to the actions of the new US president Donald Trump.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart technical indicators point to a continuation of the current downward trend. Bollinger Bands are directed downwards. Histogram of MACD is in the positive zone, but its volume is rapidly reducing and is ready to move into negative zone.
Support levels: 1195.76, 1187.66, 1176.06.
Resistance levels: 1210.18, 1220.01, 1233.12.
Trading tips
In the current situation, short positions can be opened below the level of 1195.76, with 1187.76 level as target and stop loss at the level of 1198.00.
Positions to buy can be opened above 1210.18 level with a view to 1220.01 and stop loss at the level of 1207.20.

EUR/USD: general review | FX Signals

EUR/USD: general review | FX Signals

EUR/USD: general review25 January 2017, 11:22


Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point1.0690
Take Profit1.0665, 1.0622
Stop Loss1.0720
Key Levels1.0622, 1.0665, 1.0697, 1.0774, 1.0817, 1.0872
Alternative scenario
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point1.0780
Take Profit1.0817, 1.0872
Stop Loss1.0744
Key Levels1.0622, 1.0665, 1.0697, 1.0774, 1.0817, 1.0872
Current trend
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair hit the highs at 1.0774, but in the afternoon it began to decline quite rapidly. Despite the fact that both in the Eurozone and the US ambiguous statistics were published, investors expressed a preference for the US currency. In the Eurozone weak data on the index of business activity in the services sector by Markit were released, showing a decline to 53.6 points in January from 53.7 points a month earlier. On the other hand, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 55.1 points in January from 54.9 points a month earlier. The US PMI Markit index in the manufacturing sector rose to 55.1 points in January from 54.3 points a month earlier, while sales in the secondary housing market fell by 2.8%.
Today, the macroeconomic calendar will provide us with data on the index of business optimism in Germany by IFO (11:00 GMT+2). It is predicted that the index will rise to 111.3 points in January from 111.0 points a month earlier. Confirmation of the forecasts can support the exchange rate of EUR/USD and lead to an increase to the area of ​​1.0759.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed sideways, indicating the relative calm in the market. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are decreasing.
Support levels: 1.0697, 1.0665, 1.0622.
Resistance levels: 1.0774, 1.0817, 1.0872.
Trading tips
In the current situation, short positions can be opened below the 1.0697 level with the targets at 1.0665, 1.0622 and stop loss at 1.0720.
Positions to buy can be opened above the level of 1.0774 with the targets at 1.0817, 1.0872 and stop loss at 1.0744.

GBP/USD: technical analysis | FX Signals

GBP/USD: technical analysis | FX Signals



GBP/USD: technical analysis


Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point1.2415
Take Profit1.2314, 1.2255
Stop Loss1.2456
Key Levels1.2255, 1.2314, 1.2415, 1.2542, 1.2654, 1.2766
Alternative scenario
RecommendationBUY STOP
Entry Point1.2552
Take Profit1.2654
Stop Loss1.2510
Key Levels1.2255, 1.2314, 1.2415, 1.2542, 1.2654, 1.2766
GBP/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA130, SMA200 that are directed down. The GBP/USD: technical analysis RSI is trying to turn down in the Bearish zone below the 60 mark. The Composite, however, is growing.

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis | FX Signals

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis | FX Signals

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis25 January 2017, 09:45


Scenario
TimeframeIntraday
RecommendationBUY
Entry Point55.66
Take Profit59.80
Stop Loss55.20
Key Levels48.40, 50.90, 52.75, 54.30, 57.20, 59.80
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point54.00
Take Profit50.90
Stop Loss55.00
Key Levels48.40, 50.90, 52.75, 54.30, 57.20, 59.80
Current trend
On Monday on the meeting of the members of the oil production limitation agreement it was reported that from the beginning of the agreement (January, 1) the oil production was cut by 1.5 million barrel per day, which is 80% from the target level. This is positive for the oil price, and also the price was supported by the fact that, according to the last reports of СОТ (Commitments of Traders), the “bulls” positions volume of the hedge funds was grown to the record levels with the expectation that the OPEC actions will bear desired fruits. However, according to the Baker Hughes data, the number of the active rigs in the USA is growing dramatically. Since May, 2016 the number of it grew from 318 to 551. The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published on Friday (20:00 GMT+2). With such a controversial background the oil is trading in the narrow range between 54.30 and 57.20, which is narrowing in the upper part, which reflects the strength of the “bulls”.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 57.20, 59.80.
Support levels: 54.30, 52.75, 50.90, 48.40.
Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 59.80 and stop loss at 55.20.
Open short positions if the price has lowered below the border of the daily channel from 54.00 with the target at 50.90 and stop loss is at 55.00.

IBM Corp.: wave analysis | FX Signals

IBM Corp.: wave analysis | FX Signals

IBM Corp.: wave analysis25 January 2017, 09:24


Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY
Entry Point176.02
Take Profit182.50
Stop Loss173.80
Key Levels149.60, 164.80, 182.50
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point164.70
Take Profit149.60
Stop Loss169.50
Key Levels149.60, 164.80, 182.50
Upward trend is strong.
Assumingly, an upward impulse continues forming. Locally, the third wave iii of 3 seems to be developing, within which the third wave (iii) of the lower level is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price is expected to continue growing towards the level of 182.50. Critical for this scenario could be the level of 164.80, a breakdown of which would allow the price to fall to 149.60.
Main scenario
Buy the instrument above the level of 164.80 with the target at 182.50.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and consolidation below the level of 164.80 would allow the price to fall to 149.60.

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis | FX Signals

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis | FX Signals

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis25 January 2017, 09:24


Scenario
TimeframeWeekly
RecommendationBUY
Entry Point84.74
Take Profit90.50
Stop Loss82.70
Key Levels77.38, 82.95, 90.50
Alternative scenario
RecommendationSELL STOP
Entry Point82.90
Take Profit77.38
Stop Loss84.70
Key Levels77.38, 82.95, 90.50
Upward trend is strong.
Assumingly, an upward impulse in the third wave iii of 5 of the higher level continues forming. Locally, a downward correction in the fourth wave (iv) of iii of 5 of the lower level seems to have finished and if the assumption is correct, the price is expected to continue growing towards the levels of 90.50, 93.00. Critical for this scenario could be the level of 82.95.
Main scenario
Buy the instrument above the level of 82.95 with the target at 90.50.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and consolidation below the level of 82.95 would allow the price to fall to 77.38.